2011 Oscar Predictions

With the Oscars only a couple days away, everyone from Rodger Ebert to any random person with a YouTube account is flooding the internet with predictions on who will take home those naked golden men Sunday night. While you have probably read or watched a million different predictions already, I figured it couldn’t hurt to throw mine into the mix.

So let’s get to it already…

It all comes down to two movies based on true stories about guys with “issues.” One is a brilliant jerk who desperately wants to be “cool” and the other is a man of royalty who desperately wants to overcome his crippling speech impediment. For the most part, the other nominated movies are going to have to just sit back and watch The King’s Speech and The Social Network dominate the awards. Don’t get me wrong, most of the nominees are great movies, but Sunday night is going to be a duel between a King and a Computer Scientist.

It’s been said that Americans dote on everything British. It must be because their accent makes everything sound intellectually elevated. I even changed the voice on my GPS to have a British accent because I found I trusted it to get me to my destination more than the American voice. But that’s beside the point. The King’s Speech is just a damn good movie. It captures that terrifying and often paralyzing moment everyone experiences when having to speak to an audience and multiplies it to the point where the tension of that moment is so potent, you can’t help but nervously fidget in your seat as you watch. Colin Firth is genuinely vulnerable and convincing as the man who would be king and Geoffrey Rush is utterly charming. Yes, it’s a buddy movie, but there is so much more at stake than just the King’s speech impediment or his developing friendship. The ending result matters not only to the protagonists of the film, but to the course of history. This movie is brilliant even if it doesn’t win the Oscar because it taps into what we all crave: a political leader with a genuine heart and immeasurable courage. If it doesn’t win best picture, I’d be shocked.

Once again, it is going to be a toss up between The King’s Speech and The Social Network. In The Social Network, David Fincher taps into the social phenomenon of our time and adds such weight and seriousness to the screen that the film demands our attention and respect. This isn’t just a movie about the creation of Facebook, or just a movie about a socially-ignorant computer genius exacting his revenge, or even a movie about three men struggling for the ownership of an exceptional idea. It’s about all of those interlocking stories and so much more. What The Social Network gives us is an innovative, compelling look into the events that lead up to the creation of something very prevalent in our lives.

There are few actors who can carry such presence and vulnerability on screen as Colin Firth. In The King’s Speech, Firth delivers such a realistic performance as a man of royalty whose life has been crippled by neglect, pressure, and unrealistic expectations which have manifested into a debilitating speech impediment. This film would not have been effective if Firth hadn’t made us care about and root for his character.

In Black Swan Natalie Portman is Joan Crawford in ballet shoes. She goes through various emotional states, from psychosis to martyrdom, on screen and proves her worth as an actress. What else can I say except Portman will probably win.

It’s very possible that Geoffrey Rush will win for his brilliant performance in The King’s Speech, but I’m rooting for Bale because, let’s be honest for a moment, someone needs to give Christian Bale an Oscar before he accidentally kills himself trying to prepare for a role. This man knows how to severely transform himself into a character role (see The Machinist). His dedication borders on insanity. It’s not just about his physical appearance. When Bale gets into a role, he holds the screen and engages you. Perhaps giving him an Oscar will only encourage his insanity, but just give the man the award already.

I’m incredibly irritated that Hailee Steinfeld was not in the “Best Actress” category. She was the LEAD in True Grit, NOT the SUPPORTING ACTRESS, but that’s a moot point at this time. Steinfeld is a newcomer and a strong one at that. Her performance in True Grit was so convincing as a bold, self-sufficient girl that, from time to time, I forgot how young her character really was. It was only when she reacted immaturely when I would remember that she’s just a little kid trying to stay tough in a harsh world. Her vulnerability and strength was palpable in every scene.

That being said, it’s probable that Melissa Leo will win for her performance in The Fighter, but I’m rooting for Steinfeld.

Pixar owns this award. It’s just a matter of time before they have it in their hands.

A good score can enhance the effectiveness of a film, providing emotional focus and establishing themes. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s score for The Social Network is a perfect combination of discordant sounds weaved in with simple musical notes. The score is haunting and hypnotic. The solitary piano promotes feelings of isolation yet the underlying tinny buzzing noises (like a computer’s white noise) promote the idea of rapid, unrelenting thoughts, as if we’re listening to the inside of our brilliant protagonist’s brain. Brilliance and loneliness weaving together – that’s what I get from the score, which is as ambitious as Mark Zuckerberg himself.

After recently learning that Scrooge McDuck Did Inception first, I almost didn’t want to pick Inception as my prediction to win Best Original Screenplay, but I can’t deny how amazing the neverending mind games and complex storytelling are. Besides, hearing Christopher Nolan thank Donald Duck (though not likely) for the inspiration behind Inception during his Oscar acceptance speech would be priceless.

No other script has a chance. From character development to dialogue, The Social Network is one of the smartest screenplays ever written. Aaron Sorkin took a nearly untellable story (a couple guys sitting in front of a computer) and organized it into a compelling narrative that exceeded everyone’s expectations.

As I said before, The Social Network is nearly an untellable story, but with its excellent script and focused editing the film never feels tedious or vague. Its editing takes us seamlessly in and out of different timelines, weaving several storylines together during its two-hour running time.

It all comes down to Inception (which folds entire cities like clean laundry) and True Grit (which captures the gorgeous landscapes of the old west). Deakins has been nominated nine times, but has yet to win. His cinematography in True Grit was masterful. Wally Pfister has been nominated three times and his cinematography is invaluable to Inception. Both cinematographers are amazing and both deserve to win, but because of Deakin’s nomination history, I think he may finally win this Sunday.

So there you have it. I’d be lucky to get three of these right, but its fun to guess nonetheless. You can guess too and even win money if you go to http://mubi.com/oscars.

Good luck!